Syria’s Civil War: A Major Rebel Offensive and the Escalating Conflict
The Syrian civil war, which began in 2011 as a peaceful uprising against President Bashar al-Assad, has transformed into one of the most devastating conflicts in modern history. After years of brutal fighting, international involvement, and shifting alliances, the war seemed to be winding down in recent years as Assad regained control over much of the country, thanks in large part to support from Russia, Iran, and Iranian-backed militias. However, recent events have reignited the flames of war, and a major new offensive launched by a coalition of Syrian rebel groups has taken the world by surprise.
Just last week, the rebel coalition known as Deterrence of Aggression launched an unexpected and rapid offensive in northern Syria, culminating in the capture of Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city. This bold attack marked a significant shift in the balance of power and represents the largest rebel offensive against Assad’s forces in years.
Within just 72 hours, the coalition of armed rebel groups was able to seize large swaths of territory, including Aleppo and parts of the surrounding provinces, such as Hama. These areas had been under Assad's control for years, but a swift retreat by government forces left them vulnerable to the rebel assault. Syrian rebels are now pushing toward Hama, further escalating the conflict.
The rebel coalition is diverse, consisting of both Islamist factions and groups backed by external powers. At the forefront of this alliance is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a prominent militant group that has played a major role in the conflict in Syria’s northwestern Idlib province. HTS was initially formed as Jabhat al-Nusra in 2012, which was al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, before breaking ties with the global jihadist organization in 2016. Since then, HTS has consolidated power in Idlib, where it controls much of the region, and established the so-called Syrian Salvation Government to govern the area.
Despite HTS's efforts to distance itself from al-Qaeda, the U.S., the UN, and the European Union still regard it as a terrorist group. The group has long been focused on toppling Assad and establishing an Islamic state, though it has refrained from launching large-scale offensives in recent years. This recent rebellion, however, marks a dramatic return to active military operations, and HTS has been a key player in the assault on Aleppo.
Another major faction in the offensive is the Syrian National Army (SNA), a group of Turkey-backed rebel forces. The SNA consists of various Islamist factions, including Ahrar al-Sham, which has sought to overthrow Assad and establish an Islamic state governed by Sharia law. These groups are funded and armed by Turkey, which has used the SNA as a proxy force in its regional conflicts, particularly in the Kurdish-majority areas of northern Syria.
The timing of the rebel offensive is crucial. Syrian government forces and their allies—particularly Iran-backed militias and Russian air support—have been focused on other regions and conflicts. Russia, for example, is deeply involved in the war in Ukraine, while Hezbollah, a major ally of Assad, has been distracted by Israel's offensive in Lebanon. With these allies preoccupied, Assad's forces are more exposed, and the rebels have seized the opportunity to strike.
Additionally, there have been signs of growing discontent among the Syrian population, particularly in the northwest, where the government’s control is weak and rebel forces are still entrenched. The rebels argue that their offensive is aimed at “deterring aggression” from the government and its Iranian-backed forces, who have been accused of escalating attacks on the northwest.
The escalating violence has drawn in multiple foreign powers, each with their own interests in the outcome of the war. Russia, Assad's primary backer, has already begun carrying out airstrikes against the rebel forces. Moscow’s position is clear: it supports Assad’s goal of regaining full control over Syria, seeing the conflict as part of its broader geopolitical strategy in the Middle East.
Iran has also pledged its continued support for the Assad regime. In a call with Assad, Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian emphasized Iran’s firm stance on Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. This is a key issue for both Iran and Russia, who view the conflict as critical to maintaining their influence in the region.
On the other side, Western powers have largely opposed Assad’s rule. The United States, the UK, France, and Germany issued a joint statement calling for de-escalation and the protection of civilians. They have urged a return to a political solution, as outlined in a 2015 UN Security Council resolution, but the West has also made it clear that they believe Assad’s refusal to engage in peace talks has contributed to the ongoing violence.
The conflict in Syria remains as complex as ever, with no clear path to peace. Large parts of the country remain outside Assad’s direct control, particularly in the north and east, where Kurdish-led forces supported by the U.S. hold significant territory. The recent rebel offensive highlights the ongoing volatility of the situation, with shifting alliances, the involvement of multiple foreign powers, and the continued suffering of the Syrian people.
The capture of Aleppo by rebel forces and their ongoing battle for control in the north represents a major escalation. Whether this offensive will lead to a broader change in the war's dynamics, or simply result in more destruction and displacement, remains to be seen. However, it is clear that the Syrian conflict, now in its 13th year, is far from over, and the situation continues to evolve in unpredictable ways. The international community remains divided, and as long as regional powers continue to pursue their own interests, Syria’s long-suffering people will remain caught in the crossfire.