Election Day in Ontario: Ford Seeks a Third Term Amid Controversy and Uncertainty

Today, February 27th, marks a crucial day for Ontario as voters head to the polls in an early provincial election called by Premier Doug Ford. Originally scheduled for June 2026, this snap election comes amid political turmoil at the federal level and economic uncertainty exacerbated by U.S. President Donald Trump's threats of imposing steep tariffs on Canadian goods. Ford and his Progressive Conservatives (PCs) are looking to secure a third consecutive majority government, but challenges including affordability, healthcare, and the controversial Greenbelt scandal may impact the final results.

Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives are facing off against the New Democratic Party (NDP) led by Marit Stiles, the Ontario Liberal Party under Bonnie Crombie, and the Green Party led by Mike Schreiner. Polls indicate that the PCs maintain a significant lead, with recent data from Ipsos showing Ford’s party at 48% support, the Liberals trailing at 28%, and the NDP lagging behind at 16%. The Greens and other parties account for 8% of voter intentions.

Despite this advantage, voter discontent over affordability issues, healthcare shortages, and the housing crisis may lead to fewer seats for the PCs than anticipated. Ford’s decision to call an election more than a year early has been criticized as a political power grab, with opposition leaders arguing the $150–$175 million election cost could have been better allocated to struggling public services.

Ford has positioned himself as the leader Ontario needs to navigate the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s return to power and the potential imposition of 25% tariffs on Canadian exports. By calling an early election, Ford seeks a fresh mandate to counter these economic threats and implement stimulus measures if necessary. His strong stance against Trump has allowed him to frame himself as a protector of Ontario jobs and industry, appealing to voters who fear the consequences of a renewed trade war.

Ford’s populist approach also includes handing out $200 rebate cheques to 15 million Ontarians, a $3 billion initiative aimed at easing financial pressures. Additionally, the PCs have allocated $612 million to expand alcohol sales in grocery and convenience stores—another voter-friendly move in the lead-up to the election.

Despite Ford’s strategic framing of the election, significant issues threaten his dominance. The affordability crisis remains a major concern, with rising rents and housing shortages plaguing Ontario’s urban centers. Critics argue Ford’s government has done little to address these problems, and his previous promises to build 1.5 million homes have fallen short.

Healthcare is another point of contention. Ontario faces a shortage of family doctors, long emergency room wait times, and ongoing crises in long-term care facilities. Bonnie Crombie and the Liberals have focused their campaign on fixing healthcare, promising tax cuts and increased funding for medical services.

Ford is also battling the ongoing RCMP investigation into his government’s controversial Greenbelt land swap. While he reversed his decision to allow developers to build on environmentally sensitive land following public backlash, the investigation continues. Opposition leaders argue the early election is an attempt to dodge potential fallout from the scandal, which could escalate in the coming months.

While Ford enjoys strong polling numbers, history has shown that early elections can backfire. In 1990, Ontario’s Liberal Premier David Peterson called an election a year ahead of schedule, only to suffer a shocking defeat at the hands of the NDP. Some political analysts warn that Ford could face a similar fate, particularly as his government’s approval ratings have been inconsistent over the past year.

Another key factor is the federal political landscape. With Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepping down and a federal election expected later this year, Ford may be attempting to secure his position before Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives take power in Ottawa. Historically, Ontario voters have tended to elect governments opposite to the federal ruling party—a pattern that could play into the Liberals’ or NDP’s favour in this provincial race.

With the PCs maintaining a substantial lead in the polls, Ford is expected to secure another majority. However, the margin of victory could be smaller than anticipated if voter dissatisfaction over affordability, healthcare, and the Greenbelt scandal translates into seat losses. Meanwhile, the battle for second place between the Liberals and NDP remains tight, as both parties vie for progressive voters disillusioned with Ford’s leadership.

As Ontarians cast their ballots today, one thing is certain: this election will shape the province’s political and economic trajectory for years to come. Will Ford’s gamble on an early election pay off, or will history repeat itself with a shocking upset? By tonight, we’ll have the answer.