Crime in Toronto: A Decade of Trends and Today’s Alarming Concerns

Over the past decade, Toronto has built a reputation as one of the safest major cities in North America. Compared to global urban centres, our violent crime rates remain modest. Yet when you look closely at the numbers—and listen to the conversations taking place in neighbourhoods across Ontario—a more complicated picture emerges.

Toronto’s homicide statistics tell a story of peaks and valleys. In 2014 and 2015, the city recorded around 51 to 59 homicides each year, translating to a relatively low rate of about 2.0 per 100,000 residents. That stability shifted in 2016 with a sharp increase to 75 homicides, followed by 65 in 2017.

The real shock came in 2018, when Toronto recorded 98 homicides—its deadliest year on record—with a rate of 3.6 per 100,000, surpassing all other Canadian major cities. Although numbers dipped to 80 in 2019 and 71 in 2020, the past few years have seen continued volatility: 85 in 2021, 71 in 2022, 73 in 2023, and another rise to around 85 in 2024.

Shootings follow a similar pattern. Toronto saw 177 shooting incidents in 2014, ballooning to nearly 500 by 2019. After a dip in 2023 (345 incidents), the city experienced a sharp 33% rise in 2024 with 461 incidents—evidence that the cycle of gun violence continues to plague communities.

Statistics Canada’s Violent Crime Severity Index (CSI) reinforces the concern. After a low of 73.96 in 2020, Toronto’s CSI has crept steadily upward: 74.87 in 2021, 78.76 in 2022, and 80.45 in 2023. Each uptick reflects not just volume but severity—suggesting that while Toronto remains safer than many cities, the intensity of violent crimes is worsening.

Beyond the data, lived experiences in recent weeks have added fuel to public anxiety. Reports of violent assaults, home invasions, and brazen break-ins have increased not just in Toronto, but across Ontario. Communities in York Region, Peel, Durham, and Hamilton are echoing similar concerns: criminals appear emboldened, and ordinary citizens feel increasingly vulnerable.

What’s particularly striking is not just the crime itself, but the public’s perception of how offenders are treated. Time and again, residents point to what they see as “soft” repercussions for serious offences. When offenders cycle through the justice system only to reoffend days later, the public loses faith. Worse still, many Ontarians worry that law-abiding people who defend themselves in moments of danger face harsher scrutiny than the criminals who broke into their homes in the first place.

Those concerns reached a boiling point recently when York Regional Police Chief Jim MacSween made headlines by advising residents to “comply” with home invaders. While his comments were intended to prioritize safety and de-escalation, they were widely interpreted as a signal that the system is incapable of protecting people in their own homes. The result: anger, fear, and growing distrust.

If these trends are not taken seriously, Toronto and Ontario risk spiraling into a culture of fear. Already, parents worry about their children walking home after dark, seniors feel trapped in their own neighborhoods, and small business owners quietly calculate the cost of break-ins as part of their operating reality.

Ontario cannot afford to normalize this environment. Law enforcement and political leaders must demonstrate that violent crime will be met with decisive action—through effective policing, fair but firm sentencing, and community-based prevention that addresses root causes. At the same time, ordinary citizens deserve reassurance that protecting themselves and their families will not make them criminals.

Toronto’s last decade of crime data proves that progress is possible, but also that complacency is dangerous. Every lull has been followed by a spike, and today’s numbers suggest another escalation. For the sake of our communities, Ontario needs leaders who will treat public safety as a priority, not an afterthought.

If violent crime continues to rise unchecked—paired with eroding trust in the justice system—Ontario risks trading its reputation as one of the safest places to live for one defined by fear. That is a path we cannot afford to take.