Carney’s Alberta Crisis: The Cost of Neglect and the Urgency of National Unity

Alberta is sending a loud and clear message to Ottawa, and Mark Carney cannot afford to ignore it.

In a political bombshell that could shake the very foundations of Canadian Confederation, Premier Danielle Smith has announced that a provincial referendum on Alberta’s separation could be held as early as next year—if citizens gather enough signatures. This isn’t just a symbolic act of protest. It’s a potential economic and constitutional rupture, and it demands immediate and decisive action from Prime Minister Carney.

For over a decade, Alberta has voiced frustration over being treated as a cash cow for the rest of the country—its wealth drained through federal equalization payments, while its core industries, particularly oil and gas, have been sidelined, regulated, and outright blocked by successive Liberal governments. The result is a deep sense of alienation that’s now boiled over into a credible threat of separatism.

Premier Smith struck a measured but firm tone in her recent address. “The vast majority of these individuals are not fringe voices to be marginalized or vilified. They are loyal Albertans,” she said. “They’re frustrated, and they have every reason to be.”

She’s not wrong. Alberta contributes billions annually to equalization payments that prop up social programs in provinces like Quebec, while its own economy is stifled by federal policies that limit pipeline development, increase environmental red tape, and restrict access to international markets. Alberta has the resources, the know-how, and the will to lead Canada’s economic engine. But Ottawa, particularly under the Liberal leadership of Justin Trudeau, has done more to restrain that potential than to unleash it.

Carney, who campaigned on a message of unity and post-Trudeau restoration, now faces the defining test of his leadership. He inherits not just the sins of the past, but the responsibility to chart a new course. Damage control is no longer optional—it’s existential.

Smith’s government has introduced legislation that lowers the threshold for citizen-led referenda. Now, only 10% of eligible voters need to sign a petition for a referendum to move forward—a significant drop from the previous 20%. The message is clear: Albertans are ready to use the tools of democracy to force a national reckoning.

And yet, Carney has an opportunity here. This doesn’t have to be a moment of division. It can be a turning point for reconciliation and renewal. But it will require humility, urgency, and a willingness to break from the legacy of Liberal indifference toward the West.

First and foremost, Carney must travel to Edmonton to meet Premier Smith face to face—not with bureaucratic talking points, but with a real offer to support Alberta’s natural resource development. That means fast-tracking federal approvals for infrastructure projects like pipelines and LNG terminals. It means repealing or revising policies that disproportionately burden Alberta’s industries while letting foreign polluters off the hook. And it means making a public, binding commitment to help Alberta get its resources to tidewater.

Alberta doesn’t just want respect—it deserves it. The province is home to the third-largest oil reserves in the world. Its success is Canada’s success. If Alberta were to leave Confederation, it wouldn’t just be a constitutional crisis—it would be an economic disaster. The federal budget depends heavily on Alberta’s contributions. Our national healthcare system, public pensions, and interprovincial social services rely on the wealth generated in the oil sands and elsewhere in Alberta’s vast resource sector.

Let’s be blunt: Canada could survive Quebec independence—it would be painful, but largely cultural and political. But losing Alberta would break the bank. It’s not just about pipelines or policy—it’s about prosperity.

Carney must also acknowledge and correct the perception that Ottawa governs Alberta without listening to it. A series of town halls led by Smith’s new “Alberta Next” panel will gather ideas directly from citizens. Carney should match that with his own federal listening tour. If he fails to show up in Alberta, separatist sentiments will only grow stronger—and more legitimate.

Of course, any conversation about Alberta’s future must also include Indigenous voices. Smith has rightly stated that any referendum must respect the constitutional rights and treaty obligations with First Nations, Métis, and Inuit communities. Many of these treaties predate Alberta’s status as a province, and any talk of separation must navigate that legal and moral reality. But Indigenous leaders have also been vocal about the lack of economic opportunity in their communities—particularly when federal policies hinder responsible development on traditional lands. A fair resource framework could be a win-win for all parties involved.

Carney’s challenge is immense, but it is also clear. He must choose: Will he continue the Trudeau-era neglect and risk losing Alberta altogether? Or will he reset the federal relationship with the West and restore confidence in a unified Canada?

The time for vague commitments and lofty language has passed. Alberta wants a fair deal. Ottawa must deliver it.

Because if it doesn’t, the next federal election won’t just be a referendum on Carney’s leadership—it could be a referendum on Canada itself.