Canada’s Military Crisis: Why We’re Unprepared for the Challenges Ahead

In 2025, Canada’s military faces significant challenges, many stemming from years of underfunding and policy decisions under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s administration. As global geopolitical tensions rise, particularly with nations like Russia and China asserting their influence, Canada’s defense capabilities are under scrutiny. The potential shift in U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump further complicates Canada’s security landscape, emphasizing the need for a robust and self-reliant military.

Current State of the Canadian Military

As of 2025, Canada ranks 28th out of 145 countries in military strength, with a Power Index score of 0.5179 (where a score of 0.0000 is considered ‘perfect’). This ranking reflects a modest military capability, especially when compared to global powers.

The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) have been grappling with a significant personnel shortage, with reports indicating a deficit of approximately 16,000 members. This shortfall has resulted in readiness levels hovering around 50%, meaning that only half of the military’s units are fully prepared for deployment at any given time.

In terms of defense spending, Canada has consistently fallen short of NATO’s guideline of allocating 2% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to defense. While Prime Minister Trudeau pledged to meet this target by 2032, current spending remains below this benchmark, raising concerns among NATO allies about Canada’s commitment to collective defense.

Comparison with the United States Military

The disparity between Canadian and American military capabilities is stark. The United States boasts over 1.3 million active military personnel, while Canada maintains a force of around 95,000. In terms of defense spending, the U.S. allocates over $600 billion annually, dwarfing Canada’s defense budget.

This imbalance has historically led Canada to rely on the U.S. for military support, particularly in areas like air defense and intelligence sharing. However, recent policy shifts under President Trump suggest that Canada can no longer assume unconditional U.S. support. Trump’s administration has emphasized a more transactional approach to alliances, urging NATO members to increase their defense spending and take greater responsibility for their own security.

Geopolitical Challenges and Sovereignty Concerns

Canada’s vast Arctic territories are becoming increasingly strategic due to potential resource extraction and new trade passages resulting from melting ice caps. Both Russia and China have shown interest in the Arctic, with Russia expanding its military presence in the region and China declaring itself a “near-Arctic” state.

The potential competition with these powers underscores the need for Canada to assert its sovereignty and protect its interests in the Arctic. However, the current state of the CAF raises questions about Canada’s ability to do so effectively.

The Path Forward: A Call for Increased Defense Investment

With federal elections approaching in October, there is a growing consensus that the incoming government, likely led by the Conservative Party, must prioritize strengthening Canada’s military. This includes increasing defense spending to meet NATO’s 2% GDP guideline, addressing personnel shortages, and investing in modern equipment and infrastructure.

Enhancing the CAF’s capabilities is not just about meeting international commitments; it’s about ensuring that Canada can independently defend its vast territory and assert its sovereignty in strategic regions like the Arctic. It also involves reassessing procurement processes to ensure timely and efficient acquisition of necessary equipment, as well as investing in the well-being and professional development of military personnel.

In conclusion, the challenges facing Canada’s military in 2025 are significant but not insurmountable. With strategic investment and a renewed commitment to defense, Canada can build a military that not only meets its national security needs but also contributes meaningfully to global stability.