Canada’s Defence Reckoning: Why Bolstering Our Military Can No Longer Wait

For decades, Canada has coasted under the protective shadow of the United States. The idea was simple: as our closest ally and the world’s military superpower, America would always have our back. But with a Trump administration back in Washington and an increasingly unstable world, that assumption is no longer safe—if it ever really was.

For a sovereign, developed nation, the ability to defend its borders and contribute meaningfully to global security isn’t optional—it’s foundational. And right now, Canada has a lot of catching up to do.

NATO members committed in 2014 to spending at least 2% of GDP on defence, with 20% of that earmarked for major equipment. Canada sits near the bottom of the pack, spending just 1.37% of GDP in 2024—27th out of 31 NATO members and lowest among G7 countries. By comparison, Poland, sitting on Russia’s doorstep, is the alliance’s top spender.

This isn’t simply a numbers game. It reflects real vulnerabilities. Only one in four Canadian submarines is seaworthy. The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) is short nearly 16,000 personnel. Recruitment lags badly. At the same time, Canada’s military spending on equipment remains just below NATO’s minimum threshold. In a world where Russia is emboldened, China is assertive, and North America faces new threats in the Arctic and cyberspace, Canada cannot afford to remain a laggard.

The federal government has finally started shifting gears. A 2023 defence strategy envisioned a gradual rise to 1.76% of GDP by 2030. Then came an election platform that pledged to hit 2% by that same year, with $46.4 billion in new spending over five years.

But the real turning point arrived in June 2024: Ottawa announced $9.2 billion in immediate additional funding, theoretically pushing Canada to 2% of GDP next year. Maintaining that level would require roughly $62 billion in incremental spending over five years.

Of course, announcements are one thing—delivery is another. Canada has a long history of under-spending its defence budgets, plagued by procurement delays and political hesitancy. Between 2017 and 2023, $12 billion in planned capital spending was left unspent. To hit 2% in practice, not just on paper, Ottawa will need a credible plan to streamline procurement and hold itself accountable.

The Department of National Defence currently allocates half its budget to personnel, with the rest spread across operations, capital, and infrastructure. With new commitments, more money will flow toward equipment—aircraft, ships, vehicles, and emerging technologies.

That matters. Canada’s military is overstretched, under-equipped, and too dependent on outdated assets. Investment in modern kit is not just about prestige—it’s about readiness. A military unable to patrol its own Arctic waters or deploy rapidly in emergencies undermines Canada’s sovereignty and credibility on the world stage.

But defence isn’t just about gear. Recruitment and retention are critical. Without personnel to operate and maintain assets, new ships and planes become costly paperweights. A portion of new spending must therefore focus on addressing the CAF’s manpower crisis.

Critics argue that billions in military spending would be better spent on social programs. But defence is not just an expense—it’s also an investment.

According to the RBC report, defence spending has GDP and jobs multipliers higher than most private-sector spending. In the short run, it stimulates the economy through construction, research, and industrial production. In the long run, it can drive innovation. Defence industries are research-intensive, often producing “dual-use” technologies that spill over into civilian markets—from aviation to cybersecurity.

Still, the risks are real. Without strong procurement rules that prioritize domestic suppliers, much of this new spending could leak abroad, particularly to the U.S., which dominates the global arms export market. That’s why Ottawa’s promise of a new defence industrial strategy, focused on “Made-in-Canada” procurement, is critical. A healthy domestic defence sector not only supports jobs at home but also reduces dependency on foreign suppliers.

The geopolitical backdrop is stark. Russia’s war in Ukraine shows no signs of ending. China is flexing its muscle in the Pacific. The Arctic—Canada’s backyard—is becoming a contested zone as melting ice opens new shipping routes.

And then there’s Washington. With Donald Trump back in the White House, America’s commitment to NATO is in question. Trump has already signaled that allies who fail to meet their defence obligations should not expect automatic protection. For Canada, this isn’t a distant hypothetical—it’s a direct challenge. We can no longer assume the U.S. will always step in to fill our defence gaps.

Ultimately, this isn’t just about meeting NATO benchmarks or pleasing Washington. It’s about sovereignty. A developed nation with global interests cannot outsource its defence. Yes, social programs matter, and balancing fiscal priorities will be difficult. But a nation that cannot defend itself risks losing the very freedoms and prosperity those programs are meant to protect.

The 2% target is a floor, not a ceiling. Meeting it will require political will, industrial strategy, and a cultural shift in how Canadians view defence. The days of complacency are over. Canada must build a military that reflects its values, supports its allies, and, most importantly, safeguards its own sovereignty in an increasingly uncertain world.