April 28, 2025: The Canadian Election and a Prediction for Change

Today, Canadians from coast to coast to coast are heading to the polls in what could be one of the most significant federal elections in recent memory. While the official polls suggest the Liberals, now led by Mark Carney, have the edge, I’m not convinced the numbers tell the whole story.

Before I dive deeper, I should mention: this post isn’t intended as pure analysis. It’s a little more of an opinion piece — and maybe even a prediction. I believe the 2025 federal election is shaping up to be Canada’s version of the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Back then, the polls favoured Hillary Clinton; today, they favour Carney. But in both cases, the prevailing “establishment candidate” underestimated a deeper, harder-to-measure current of public dissatisfaction.

Canada is feeling it. Canadians are tired — tired of a political class that seems more focused on maintaining power than solving real problems. Tired of promises that seem increasingly out of touch with everyday realities. And most of all, tired of the economic pain that has persisted and worsened under the long shadow of Justin Trudeau’s legacy.

Mark Carney has tried to position himself as an outsider — someone not tied to the old Liberal machine. In many ways, he has done a good job at that, especially for a figure who has spent his career at the highest levels of finance, central banking, and now politics. He’s polished, composed, and brings a certain credibility on economic matters. But ultimately, Carney is selling himself as “change” without the Liberals having changed.

And I think Canadians are seeing through that.

The “change” that Canadians seem to want isn’t just about a different face leading the same government. It’s about a real change: a different party, a different style of leadership, a different approach altogether. That appetite for change is exactly what I believe Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are tapping into.

For years, Poilievre has positioned himself as the voice of the discontented middle class — the taxpayers, the families trying to pay rising grocery bills, the young people who feel shut out of the housing market. He’s not everyone’s cup of tea — not by a long shot — but his message of economic relief and accountability is resonating far beyond the Conservative base.

Now, it’s true that the polls suggest a Liberal lead. But if we look at what’s happening on the ground — the crowds at Poilievre’s rallies, the social media engagement, the sheer level of frustration toward the status quo — I believe a different story is unfolding.

In 2016, Americans were told Donald Trump had no realistic path to victory. Today, Canadians are being told Pierre Poilievre can’t beat the Liberal machine. I think we are about to be surprised again.

However, I’m not predicting a Conservative majority — at least not yet. Canada’s political landscape remains deeply regionalized, and even a small shift in urban ridings could prevent the Conservatives from reaching that magic majority number. But I am predicting that the Conservatives will end up forming a minority government tonight.

That means Pierre Poilievre will be Prime Minister, but he’ll have to work with a divided Parliament, possibly finding temporary alliances or fighting through constant threats of an election call. It won’t be easy — but it will be a clear message from Canadians: enough is enough.

If that happens, it will send a strong signal not only to Ottawa but to all political parties: Canadians want solutions, not spin. They want leadership that focuses on affordability, opportunity, and rebuilding trust in institutions. Simply changing the leader’s name on the door isn’t good enough anymore.

Of course, there are still many wild cards today — turnout rates, last-minute shifts, regional breakdowns. But from where I’m sitting, the undercurrent of frustration is simply too strong to ignore. Canadians are ready for a real change, not just a new Liberal leader. They’re ready to turn the page.

Tonight, we’ll see how deep that desire runs.