Alberta on the Brink: Could a Liberal Victory Spark a National Unity Crisis?

Canada stands at a crossroads, and Monday’s federal election could ignite a powder keg in the West. If Mark Carney and the Liberal Party win, the long-standing wounds of Western alienation may finally rupture. Alberta, long the economic engine of this country and a bastion of conservative values, has taken hit after hit under Trudeau’s “woke” regime. If the next four years mirror the last decade, we might be looking at the beginning of the end of Canada as we know it.

Under Justin Trudeau, Canada’s national identity has been diluted, even ridiculed. His disdain for Canadian history and culture—describing it as toxic, outdated, or even nonexistent—set the tone for a decade of self-loathing at the highest levels of government. His open-border immigration policies and apologetic tone toward our past left many Canadians, especially in Alberta, feeling like strangers in their own country. His environmental legislation and consistent targeting of Alberta’s vital oil and gas sector only served to deepen the chasm between Ottawa and the West.

And now, with Mark Carney stepping in as the next iteration of Liberal leadership, that disconnect threatens to escalate from resentment to rebellion.

Make no mistake: Alberta is not just fed up—it’s flirting with secession. Polls show that nearly a third of Albertans and over 30% of Saskatchewanians say they would vote to leave Canada if the Liberals win. That’s not just a fringe talking point anymore. That’s a real, growing movement with leaders, momentum, and a clear sense of purpose.

Groups like the Alberta Prosperity Project have made waves by calling for referendums on sovereignty. At town halls in cities like Lethbridge, the question is no longer taboo: Should Alberta go it alone? Should it join the United States? About half the hands in the room go up every time. Some dismiss the U.S. option as a step too far. Others, like Calgary lawyer and rancher Jeffrey Rath, are actively preparing fact-finding missions to Washington, D.C., exploring what it would take to become America’s 51st state.

Rath isn’t alone in believing Alberta has more in common with Texas than with Toronto. Conservative values, resource-based economies, and a shared culture of small government and personal freedom run deep through both Alberta and the American heartland. Many Albertans feel like they’ve been ruled for too long by a central government that neither understands them nor respects them. And they have a point.

Only a quarter of Albertans feel respected by the rest of Canada. In Ontario, that number is 66%. Even in Quebec—a province with a long history of separatist sentiment—almost half feel respected. Why the difference? The answer is simple: representation. Alberta contributes billions in energy revenues to the federal coffers but is constantly overlooked in policy decisions. Environmental restrictions, pipeline cancellations, and outright hostility toward oil and gas have crushed the economic lifeblood of the province, all while Ottawa courts voters in Toronto and Montreal.

Danielle Smith, Alberta’s premier, has walked a fine line between warning of a national unity crisis and fanning the flames of separatist sentiment. Though she’s called the idea of outright separation “nonsense,” her actions tell another story. She’s passed the Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act. She’s visited Trump at Mar-a-Lago. She’s coordinated trade policy separately from Ottawa and even advised American conservatives on how to hold back tariffs that might harm Conservative chances in this election.

Some see this as a betrayal. Others see it as a bold stand for Alberta’s interests. But one thing is clear: if the next prime minister doesn’t make sweeping changes to respect and reintegrate Alberta, the province may take matters into its own hands.

Preston Manning, the founder of the Reform Party and one of the original architects of Western political voice, put it bluntly: “A vote for the Carney Liberals is a vote for Western secession.” Both Pierre Poilievre and Carney tried to distance themselves from Manning’s comments, but the data backs him up. Support for separation spikes when Liberals are in power—not because Albertans want to leave, but because they feel they have no other choice.

Of course, most Albertans still say they’d vote “no” in a referendum today. But that majority is shrinking. In 2019, half of Albertans believed separation “could” or “may very well” happen. Now, twice as many say they feel treated fairly by Ottawa compared to then—but Alberta still ranks dead last among the provinces in terms of feeling heard and respected. The anger is simmering, and all it would take is one more slap in the face to bring it to a boil.

The election on Monday is not just about taxes, climate policy, or healthcare. It’s about whether Canada remains whole. A Carney win could be the final straw for many in Alberta. Separation is no longer a theoretical exercise in political frustration—it’s a living conversation happening at kitchen tables, in town halls, and among political strategists.

Canada’s unity is fragile, and Monday’s election may determine whether it bends or breaks. If the Liberals win again, it’s not a question of whether Alberta talks about leaving—it’s whether anyone in Ottawa is still listening.